The expert of the project «Development of think tank functions of the Northern Dimension Institute»
NARFU — Development of think tank functions of the Northern Dimension Institute
NArFU 's international projects, conferences, participation in international cooperation
Svetlana Kuznetzova has participated in the third workshop of the Foresight Exercise organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) within the scenario building project “Emerging trade routes between Europe and Asia”. This work is a part of the Northern Dimension Institute Think Tank Action http://www.northerndimension.info/projects
Projects - Northern Dimension Institute
Welcome to the Northern Dimension. The Northern Dimension (ND) is a joint policy between the European Union, Russian Federation, Norway and Iceland.
The World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment considered four scenarios of future global trade and investment and by using these scenarios, the project experts derive major global drivers relevant for the development of shipping in the Arctic. Within the first workshop they discussed the key factors that would impact shipping in the Arctic in the next 30 years and their interlinkages. Next, regional factors which will eventually have an impact on volume shipments of a different nature were determined and interlinkages among these factors are established. The outcome of the first workshop was a system map of factors, i.e., a causal loop diagram connecting factors with each other. This systems map should serve as input to the development of plausible future scenarios of shipping in the Arctic, consistent with the global scenarios by the World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment.
In March-May 2021, the researchers conducted a survey on the plausible futures of shipping in the Arctic. It allowed ranking the most important factors and wildcards for the navigation over the Northern Sea Route in the next 30 years. Based on the analysis of the survey results, literature review, and previous workshops, draft skeletons of several plausible scenarios were constructed.
The aim of the third workshop was to discuss these draft skeletons with experts with the goal to enrich and detail the scenario narratives. The workshop participants evaluate the plausibility of each of the scenario skeletons and discussed factors, which can play an important role in each particular skeleton. Next steps are supposed to be the development of scenario narratives and policy measures.